At the headquarters of the Democratic Unionist Party in east Belfast the cheers may have died down, but the phones are about to start ringing.
Already, Arlene Foster’s party are being seen as the “kingmakers” as a result of the messy aftermath of the UK election. And while Theresa May says she will be in touch with “friends in the DUP”, even these friends will expect something significant in return for their crucial support.
A new dawn has broken has it not? Maybe not quite. However, it has inside the Labour Party. Jeremy Corbyn was seen jigging his way into 105 Victoria Street this morning flanked by a ginger looking Labour Party General Secretary – one Iain McNicol. Staff at Labour HQ are already discussing their futures. Most are incumbents from the pre-Corbyn era. They recognise Corbyn has won a significant moral victory within the party.
No prime minister has ever thrown away a winning hand as Theresa May has done. She announced the election when she was thought to be twenty percentage points clear of Jeremy Corbyn in the polls. In early campaigning even Labour candidates with huge majorities feared defeat, assuming that the UKIP vote would go to their Tory opponent.
Public trust in election polls has never been lower. Recent media coverage has highlighted repeated failings of election polls globally. The Guardian’s Alan Travis recent opinion piece summarised this with the headline “Can we still trust opinion polls after 2015, Brexit and Trump”. His answer? “It’s complicated”.
The terrible truth about the 2017 election is that Mumsnet users initially struggled to care. After the 2015 election and the 2016 referendum, they took a pretty jaundiced view about enduring another campaign; in a survey of over 2300 users last month, only 25% said they thought it was right to call this election now.
Measurement and evaluation