The calm before the chaos
Welcome back to Temperature Check, Portland’s annual COP newsletter.
As the world’s biggest climate summit lands in the heart of the Amazon, the atmosphere feels febrile. Major economies are watering down targets, geopolitical crises are fracturing attention, and the global economy is jittery. Once again, the story before COP is about everything that’s going wrong, from accommodation shortages to political absences.
But the real question is whether once the lights go up in Belém, the choreography will hold, and the focus will shift back to what COP is really about: negotiation.
Over the next fortnight, we’ll unpack that story. Where geopolitics meets climate, where finance meets accountability, and where Brazil turns the Amazon into the world’s stage. Two more editions will follow: a mid-COP state of play and a post-COP wrap-up.
All eyes on… Lula’s stage
The climate summit promises to be a battleground of geopolitical theatre, with tensions running higher than at any previous gathering.
Donald Trump, who withdrew the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement on his first day back in office, will not send any high-level representatives to COP30, continuing his “drill, baby, drill” mantra and leaving a diplomatic vacuum. What’s more, the U.S. has recently shown a willingness to apply extreme pressure on allies to change tack on climate issues to thwart agreements. The EU arrives determined to keep +1.5°C credible, while divided over new targets.
For President Lula da Silva, hosting in Belém is both an opportunity and a gamble: an attempt to cement Brazil’s return to global leadership and test whether soft power still works in a fragmented world.
Initially criticised for lacking a headline-grabbing goal, Lula’s team may have played a smarter game. In an age of broken multilateralism and weary publics, Brazil has branded COP30 as an implementation COP, focused on delivery rather than declarations. If the host can turn that into tangible progress on finance, forests, and fairness, Belém could become Lula’s most successful foreign policy performance thus far.
Yet Brazil’s credibility hangs in the balance domestically, too. Lula faces tensions over new oil and gas exploration in the Equatorial Margin, deforestation trajectories that have slowed but not stopped, and political resistance from agribusiness lobbies. Whether Brazil can project climate leadership abroad while managing these contradictions at home will be a subplot worth watching.
Belém’s bottleneck
Symbolism, meet logistics. Choosing Belém, gateway to the Amazon basin, was meant to be poetic: climate diplomacy returning to the lungs of the planet. Instead, the headlines have been about hotel shortages, inflated prices, and even cruise ships drafted in as floating accommodation. UN agencies and media outlets alike are cutting delegations, and Lula himself will reportedly stay on a naval yacht.
To make matters worse, a four-lane highway built near the city has drawn accusations of fresh deforestation, charges the local Pará government denies, insisting the project predates COP30. The test now is whether Brazil’s organisational strain will fade once negotiations start. If the logistics hold, the story can finally shift from how the COP is run to what it delivers.
Opinion leaders and agenda-setters
As the logistical noise fades, a familiar cast of heavyweights steps forward (and who’s not there):
- André Corrêa do Lago, Brazil’s veteran diplomat and COP President-designate, is signalling a tougher line: COP30 must “deliver real outcomes, not more promises.” Expect him to drive formal decisions on finance, adaptation, and transparency, not just political declarations.
- Ana Toni (COP30 CEO) and a network of Presidency Special Envoys (including Adnan Amin) are stitching together finance, nature, and just-transition deals behind the scenes, brokering between Global North capital and Global South priorities.
- Tina Stege, Marshall Islands Climate Envoy, will again personify moral pressure from the frontlines, pushing the High Ambition Coalition’s case on loss and damage, fossil fuel phase-down, and grant-based climate finance.
- Simon Stiell, UNFCCC Executive Secretary, will quietly shape procedural architecture, what becomes a formal COP decision versus a work programme, and how transparency mechanisms gain teeth.
Their voices will shape how the summit defines “success” in an era where credibility counts more than rhetoric.
Equally, several important figures will not be there for the leaders’ kick-off summit and (at least in Trump’s case) are likely to be delivering plenty of critical commentary from afar:
- China’s Xi Jinping
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
- Australian PM Anthony Albanese
- Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto
- Indian PM Narendra Modi
“In a world tired of new pledges, Brazil’s bet on delivery could make this the most credible COP in years. In this fragmented world, humility might be the right tone for success.”
Alexandre Cougoulic, Partner, Portland International Development
Words left unsaid
Several stories sit beneath the noise:
The corporate footprint: COP30 will host hundreds of business lobbyists, yet scrutiny of their influence has been muted compared to Sharm el-Sheikh or Dubai. Expect that narrative to resurface once financing texts land and questions arise about the credibility of the transition plan, financed emissions disclosure (PCAF standards), and the role of voluntary carbon markets amid integrity crises.
Indigenous presence: Over 1,000 accredited Indigenous delegates now have Blue Zone access, the largest contingent ever. Their participation, woven into Brazil’s “Action Agenda,” could fundamentally shift how adaptation and forest finance are discussed. Expect pressure on free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC) safeguards, benefit-sharing mechanisms, and the integration of land rights into nature-based solutions.
Youth, gender, and inclusion: The Youth Climate Champions programme and updates to the Gender Action Plan will quietly shape the legitimacy of the process. In an era of polarised climate narratives, inclusion architecture matters for the domestic political sustainability of commitments.
Health and climate: Building on last year’s momentum, health has a dedicated day (13 November) that will spotlight heat stress, vector-borne diseases, and climate-resilient health systems, a growing theme as adaptation finance debates mature. WHO is set to launch the Belém Health Action Plan.
The COP to come
When the summit opens on 10 November, negotiations will unfold along six thematic axes set by the Brazilian presidency: energy transition, forests and biodiversity, agriculture, resilient cities and water, social development, and finance & technology.
What to watch:
Finance – The New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG):
The NCGQ & Baku–Belém Roadmap: Following COP29’s agreement to USD 300 bn/yr by 2035 for developing countries, COP30 will hammer out the scope, sources, and tracking. In parallel, the Baku–Belém Roadmap sketches how total flows could scale to ~USD 1.3 trn/yr by 2035 across public and private finance. Key tensions: scope (mitigation, adaptation, loss & damage), sources (who pays and how much, with grant vs. loan), burden-sharing formulas, and transparency in tracking and delivery. Expect parallel debates on multilateral development bank (MDB) reform: capital adequacy frameworks, de-risking tools, blended finance, guarantees, and debt-for-climate swaps.
Adaptation – Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA):
Finalising the UAE–Belém indicators package could at last give the GGA measurable substance. Watch for fights over baselines, data capacity constraints in least developed countries (LDCs), and whether metrics drive finance access or become box-ticking burdens. Links to National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) and monitoring/reporting architecture will determine credibility.
Loss & Damage – Fund operationalisation:
The Loss and Damage Fund will take its first operational steps. Decisions on host institution(s), board composition, country eligibility criteria, access modalities, replenishment cycles, and grant-first principles are all in play. Developing nations want grant-based money, not loans that deepen debt distress. Tie-ins with early-warning systems, disaster risk financing, and insurance mechanisms will shape the architecture.
Article 6 – Carbon markets and cooperation:
Negotiations on Article 6.2 (cooperative approaches) and 6.4 (mechanism for sustainable development) focus on corresponding adjustments, authorisation processes, additionality, permanence, removals accounting, and registry interoperability. After recent stalls, expectations are modest but consequential: fragmented voluntary carbon markets need UN-backed integrity guardrails or risk collapsing under greenwashing scandals.
Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP):
Negotiators aim to link the phase-down of fossil fuels to fairness, jobs, and social protection, avoiding a one-size-fits-all approach. Expected deliverables: roadmaps for reskilling and labour transitions, finance for social safety nets, and data baselines. Sensitivities abound around labour standards, fossil-reliant regions, and whether transition support is conditional on fossil fuel phase-out timelines.
Nature & Forests:
Brazil’s Tropical Forests Forever facility; early funding commitments signalled, governance confirmed with the World Bank as trustees, may redefine forest finance beyond short-term project cycles. How this sits alongside LEAF Coalition, jurisdictional REDD+, and biodiversity credits will determine architectural coherence. Safeguards for Indigenous land rights, FPIC, and benefit-sharing are non-negotiable for credibility.
Methane and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs):
Sector-specific methane pledges (oil & gas, waste, agriculture) offer quick-win implementation packages. Watch for improvements in measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV), satellite data integration, and finance for infrastructure (biogas capture, leak detection, manure management).
Transparency – Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF):
Capacity-building for biennial transparency reports, digital MRV pilots, and satellite data integration will determine whether the ETF shifts from aspirational to operational. Accountability hinges on this infrastructure.
NDC 3.0 and the 2025 ratchet:
COP30 timing matters: it sits just ahead of 2025 NDC submissions. Expect signals on economy-wide, 1.5°C-aligned targets, sectoral coverage depth (power, transport, industry, buildings, agriculture), and conditional vs unconditional components. Implementation pathways, not just ambition numbers, will be scrutinised.
For organisations, this COP won’t hinge on slogans but on flows: where money, capacity, and credibility actually move. Expect scrutiny to turn from promises to performance, and from podiums to project pipelines.
What would success look like? A checklist
In an “implementation COP,” success is less about new declarations and more about decisions that unlock action. Here’s what tangible progress might entail:
- Finance architecture agreed: NCQG scope, sources, and tracking framework adopted; MDB reform commitments with timelines; innovative instruments piloted (guarantees, FX hedges, debt swaps).
- Loss & Damage Fund operational: Board established, host confirmed, access rules clear, replenishment pathway set, grants prioritised over loans.
- GGA indicators finalised: Measurable, country-owned, linked to NAPs and finance flows, with capacity-building support committed.
- Article 6 integrity guardrails: Corresponding adjustments, clear removals, accounting tightened, registries interoperable, and additional standards raised.
- JTWP delivers roadmaps: Country-level just transition plans with finance and social protection links; labour and civil society buy-in visible.
- Fossil fuel language holds or advances: At minimum, Dubai text sustained; ideally, phase-down timelines clarified with Just Transition conditionality.
- Methane/SLCPs sector deals: Measurable commitments on oil & gas leaks, waste systems, and agriculture; MRV infrastructure funded.
- Indigenous and youth inclusion embedded: FPIC safeguards in nature-based finance; gender and youth input visible in decision texts, not just side events.
Next on Temperature Check
Next week, we’ll report from inside Belém, separating the theatre from the substance as negotiations get underway.
