Belém’s balance – why COP30 was a loss, a win, and a warning…

Welcome to 2025’s final Temperature Check.

The moment that wasn’t

Ten years after Paris, COP30 in Belém was billed as the “COP of implementation,” a moment of truth hosted in the Amazon where climate urgency meets geopolitical reality.
The result was a managed compromise. There was progress on justice, finance, and forests, but a failure to secure a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap. The paradox was stark: an Amazon COP whose final text could not name oil or coal. Petro-states including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and India blocked ambition, while the U.S. absence under Trump weakened global leverage. Consensus was preserved at the cost of urgency.

Fossil fuels: The elephant not in the room

Eighty-eight countries, including the EU, UK, Colombia, and small island developing states, pushed for binding fossil fuel phase-out language. Petro-states rejected it. The final text reaffirms the COP28 UAE Consensus of “transitioning away from fossil fuels,” but without a roadmap, timeframe, or funding.

The decline in ambition

“Failing to name the cause of the crisis is not compromise, it is denial.”
Juan Carlos Monterrery, Panama

What’s next

In April 2026, Colombia and the Netherlands will host the first International Conference on Fossil Fuel Phase-Out, launching a parallel diplomatic track to bypass the UN deadlock.

What moved forward: Justice, finance and forests

Despite the catastrophic miss on fossil fuels, COP30 was not defined by losses alone.
The big win for the Just Transition was the Belém Action Mechanism (BAM). It’s the first-ever UN framework for a just transition, mandating:

• Worker rights (social protections, retraining)
• Community participation (Indigenous peoples, local actors)
• Funding pathways (sources still undefined)

This landmark moment has been widely described as “the most progressive COP decision ever on labour rights.”

There was movement in the right direction on climate finance – but no binding mechanisms for wealthy nations. Although the Baku-to-Belem Roadmap outlines how funds could be raised, delivery remains uncertain.

The first Amazonian COP promised to put forests and Indigenous people front and centre of discussions, and it delivered, to an extent:

• Tropical Forests Forever Facility: $6.7B raised (53 countries), with 20% allocated to Indigenous communities
• Record Indigenous participation: 3,000 representatives (including 1,000 in official negotiations)

Their influence was significant on the BAM, but limited on fossil fuel negotiations.
Finally, progress on carbon markets and Article 6 was measured. Stricter rules on double-counting are positive, but transparency was limited and fossil fuel lobbyists outnumbered Indigenous representatives 25:1.

Power plays: Who won, who lost

The bigger picture: Diplomacy splinters

COP30 made one thing clear:
Consensus-based multilateralism is too slow for the climate crisis.
Key issues are migrating outside the UNFCCC into:

• Voluntary coalitions (e.g., 2026 Fossil Fuel Conference)
• National legislation (e.g., EU Green Deal)
• Philanthropic capital (e.g., Bezos Earth Fund)
• Subnational diplomacy (e.g., U.S. state climate alliances)

“The UN process still matters, but it is no longer the only stage.”
Climate Action Network

What’s next: Seeds or stalemate?

The events we’ll be monitoring…

• April 2026: Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Conference (Colombia/Netherlands)
• 2027: COP31 (Turkey/Australia): first test of Belém’s commitments

The questions we’ll be asking…

• Will the Just Transition Work Programme secure real funding?
• Will adaptation finance climb toward $120B/year?
• Will Article 6 avoid greenwashing risks?
• Will the 2026 conference create a high-ambition club?

What it all means for stakeholders…

• Governments & multilaterals: Join the 2026 fossil fuel phase-out coalition; prioritise financing and implementation of the BAM
• Development banks & donors: Treat the $1.3T goal as a mandate, not a headline; prioritise grants over loans for climate-vulnerable nations
• Businesses & investors: Prepare for tighter carbon market standards; invest in labour-centred transition strategies
• Civil society & NGOs: Use the BAM to push for national just transition plans; hold governments accountable ahead of the 2026 summit
• Communicators: Focus on the 2026 conference, regional climate weeks, and MDB reform timelines

The final word: From managed retreat to mobilised action

COP30 avoided collapse but stepped back from transformation. The BAM and support for Indigenous rights highlighted justice as a structural pillar. A financial trajectory was laid out, but the delivery plan was missing. And the absence of a fossil fuel roadmap will be remembered as COP30’s defining gap.

See you in 2026…

This is our final edition of Temperature Check for 2025. We will be back next year.