When Labour gathered last year in Liverpool, the big question was ‘is he up to it?’.
With an election due at some point in the following months, Sir Keir Starmer was riding high in the polls, but the sense of anticipation of delegates was dotted with nervousness – there were missteps in his response to the immediate aftermath of the October 7th atrocities, and questions over his appeal to the Tory voters he would need to win over.
A stage invasion at the start of what would be his last conference speech in opposition left him covered in glitter, but the landslide majority won on July 4th means the new prime minister will arrive on the banks of the Mersey this time with the kind of indisputable political stardust only an electoral landslide can provide. For now, the question of whether he is up to it has been, to all intents and purposes, answered.
That means this year’s conference will be defined by a different question.
While the latest twists in the psychodrama of the Number 10 court will no doubt fill column inches and keep tongues wagging in the Pullman hotel well into the early hours, for the decision-makers we at Portland advise – people who are running some of the biggest and most consequential organisations in the UK – the focus is all on Rachel Reeves.
It will be the Chancellor, more than the PM, that we will be looking to for an account of what Labour intends to do with power – and what that in turn means for business.
From energy to mobility and aviation, the push towards decarbonisation is one where industry is looking to the government to get a clearer sense of how they intend to help and support first movers. The Chancellor could encourage investment by reducing the risks involved with taking the first steps we all need business to take. Will she?
For the tech industry, the tension between Big Tech investment and the unions is one where the government has yet to make its position clear – that’s before you get into the thorny issues of AI regulation and sustainability of data centres and whether the Treasury sees investment in quantum, compute and semiconductors as growth drivers in its eventual industrial strategy. Is this something where the Chancellor might give some hints?
For the built environment, the government’s plan to go full steam ahead on planning reform has energised the sector but uncertainty remains over how to navigate the complexities that will inevitably come with it – from the capabilities of the power grid to provision of utilities and not overloading sewage systems through hasty new developments. What’s the plan?
Ultimately, how much Rachel Reeves is prepared to reveal of her thinking on issues like these is the big unknown of this conference.
It is a tricky path for her to tread. She will be expected to preview, but not give away the Budget. She will be expected to inject some hope into the narrative of tough decisions and fiscal rules, while not ignoring the fact that the long-overdue spending review remains a few months off.
That all means the rest of the Cabinet are in effect bound by a policy straight-jacket and unable to announce anything that spends money not accounted for. It really will be all eyes on Rachel.
Given the constraints, whatever the Chancellor says is likely going to take some decoding – which is precisely what our team of Portlanders in Liverpool will be doing.
