This year’s COP29, taking place in Baku, Azerbaijan from Nov. 11-22, will seek to focus the world’s attention on climate action, and maximise momentum after the UN’s adoption of the “Pact for the Future” this week.
But COP achievements and announcements are months in the making and heavily reliant on geopolitics and momentum.
To ensure progress at COP29, there needs to be commitment, willingness and dedication from governments and negotiators throughout the year – not just in Baku, but in the build-up to it and long beyond.
What to expect
The major ‘win’ needed in Baku is on finance – the so-called New Collective Quantified Goal (or ‘NCQG’). While a mouthful of an acronym, it covers critical issues such as who pays, to whom, how much and what for – among the most challenging points of contention.
The technical process that underpins this has been slow but smooth, skilfully managed by co-chairs from South Africa and Australia. The wider UN negotiation session, in Bonn in June, also saw an improvement in willingness and engagement from across all negotiating parties compared to last year’s tense session that delivered deadlock even when it came to agreeing the agenda.
The Azerbaijan COP29 Presidency, virtually unknown in the UN climate process before their bid to host, has secured positive reviews from an array of negotiators. Their recent public letter set out a range of priorities and helped clarify their vision for this COP, emphasising their focus on delivering the ‘NCQG’.
Yet a successful outcome cannot rely on a Presidency alone. Their recent appointment of Yasmine Fouad and Chris Bowen, tasked with driving high-level political engagement and unlocking underlying differences between developed and emerging economies, will be welcomed. To support this, the climate world will be watching carefully how the G20 energy, climate and finance ministerials prepare the ground for agreement among the key players. Equally critical will be how leaders at the UN General Assembly and the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting define the needs of those countries who are most vulnerable. They will also be looking closely at how new governments in the UK and France approach the issue of climate finance overseas, and how they marry it with new commitments and policies at home.
Of course, the US elections will also loom large and, as the first major global event to take place after the election result, COP29 will be a focal point for reaction to the new U.S. president, whoever that may be.
All eyes on Baku
Outside the negotiations, this ‘all eyes on Baku’ moment will provide a significant opportunity for organisations to engage in the debate, drive partnerships and profile their own initiatives to a watching world.
As with the negotiations, COP announcements are most successful when they are the result of a well thought-through campaign over the course of the year. The last thing anyone wants to be accused of is jumping on the climate ‘band wagon’ merely to burnish reputation. Whether leveraging G20 meetings, the recent UNGA gathering or other climate-related forums around the world, it is important to test, build partnerships and gauge campaigns throughout the year to ensure that events or commitments announced at COP have the maximum impact.
Partnerships will be vital
The complex nature of solutions to the climate crisis means the most prominent COP initiatives often involve partnerships – whether public-private, across supply chains, or between the private sector and those communities most affected by climate change.
This spirit of collaboration will be essential over the coming year as countries unveil their new national commitments (‘Nationally Determined Contributions’ or ‘NDCs’), with expectations for more ambitious targets, including plans to phase out coal and reduce reliance on oil and gas.
To maximise our chances of achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, governments need to develop NDCs together with industry. Targets, policies and implementation measures need to be developed in a way that enhances jobs and growth, ensuring that employees and customers are all willing to play their part in the transition. That requires government and industry to work hand-in-hand.
Ahead of COP30 in Belém next year, where the collective ambition of the new NDCs will be the headline, Brazil will be seeking to turbocharge government-industry collaboration. If industries want to get ahead, there is no better time than now to demonstrate initiative and commitment.
About the author
Huw Davies, a Senior Adviser at Portland, has a decade of experience in international climate change politics and negotiations, including as deputy lead negotiator for the UK, where he was part of the senior team for COP26, before taking on a role as senior adviser to the UAE COP28 Presidency. Huw is also a Director at the Centre for Multilateral Negotiations (CEMUNE).
