Welcome to the first of a two-part series on what could be the most consequential US Democratic National Convention in years.
As the DNC assembles in Chicago to officially lay out the party’s platform and name Kamala Harris and Tim Walz as their ticket, November’s presidential election has m weorphed into an entirely different contest than was on the cards just a few weeks ago.
From transition to campaign mode
In his official address to the nation on July 24, President Biden framed his decision to retire from the race not as a loss, but as a stateman’s decision to ‘pass on the torch’ to a younger generation.
This was echoed in his speech at the DNC earlier this week. The President affirmed that he gave everything he had to his country, and that choosing Kamala Harris as his running mate was the best decision of his long career in public service.
At the end of his speech, Kamala Harris and her husband Doug Emhoff walked on stage to hug the President and the First Lady, giving the crowd a visual manifestation of the torch passing from one generation of leaders to another.
But as the convention nears its finale, we can expect the focus to shift from the transition to the election ahead.
Democrats will want to move the narrative towards the issues they hope will define the election in voters’ eyes: reproductive and LGBTQ+ rights, continuing the progressive policies of the Biden administration, and a foreign policy focused on strengthening relationship with allies.
A glittering roster of speakers – from the Obamas to the Clintons – has built momentum night after night towards the crescendo that will be Harris and Walz taking to the stage tomorrow.
Portland’s own Alexander Murphy will be reporting in from Chicago to provide on-the-ground insights on Harris’ big speech – and you’ll be able to read more about that in part 2.
But to really understand the backdrop to what no doubt will be one of the most heavily scrutinised speeches in years, it’s worth a recap on the two chaotic months in US politics, including an attempted assassination and a high-profile candidate swap that led to this moment.
The election twists and turns
July started with a Democratic party in freefall after President Biden’s disastrous 27 June debate (see our last blog). Prominent figures publicly called for his withdrawal, while influential power brokers such as former President Obama and Speaker Pelosi privately spoke with Biden.
On 13 July, Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt on live TV. The now-famous pictures spread of the bloodied former President triumphantly pumping his fist in the air while the Secret Service rushed him off stage. Less than a week later, at the Republican National Convention, the bandaged Trump accepted the nomination and named the 39-year-old best-selling author from Ohio, Senator JD Vance, as his running mate. Vance added youth, ambition, and a potential to attract moderates and fellow never-Trumpers to the campaign.
On 21 July, when President Biden announced he would not seek re-election via a statement on social media, nobody predicted the Democrats could turn the tables – let alone so quickly.
Communications magic
Despite the chaotic picture early July painted for the Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party pulled off a stunning upset in political communications: closing the polling gap and blowing the election wide open in less than two weeks.
The party quickly and publicly coalesced around Harris in rapid-fire, carefully sequenced announcements, allowing her to secure the nomination in just a few days and raise a record $81 million dollars in just 24 hours.
While these orchestrated movements secured her political opening, the real boost has come from digital media. A creative use of TikTok trends, Beyonce music and Harris’ own effective oration at campaign rallies has brought new momentum to the campaign. Videos of celebrity endorsements (including President Obama) have gone viral. Rather than relying on the incumbent administration’s record, the Harris campaign is emphasising her own experience as a prosecutor and legislator to create a campaign that feels distinctly hers, not inherited.
Trump’s campaign has struggled to rise to the moment, with gaffes and leaks giving the appearance of a campaign in crisis. Harris’s efforts to juxtapose her prosecutorial record and Trump’s criminal record have only been strengthened by Trump’s own flubbed talking points.
Democratic Veep stakes up the heat
With Kamala Harris switching her position on the ticket, an array of hopefuls from across the US competed to be her running mate. In line with recent tradition of balancing candidate profiles, leading contenders included Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper. The winning contender, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, brought a progressive record as governor in a midwestern state that might appeal to moderates and swing voters. Amid viral candid moments, including one in which Walz described Trump as “weird”, he has quickly gained popularity with younger voters.
Next stop: 5 November
The race for presidency looks very different – and more competitive – than just a few weeks ago. All eyes will now be on whether Harris can use this convention to bank the unexpected progress made and find another gear as she shifts into full campaign mode – or whether the velocity of US politics means there are some more rollercoaster twists and turns before ballots are cast in November.