Welcome back for week two of Temperature Check, Portland’s COP newsletter.
In this week’s edition we’re looking at developments at COP29 so far, as well as what the recent election of Donald Trump might mean for US climate commitments, and global climate dialogues more broadly.
COP29 gets underway, but major question marks linger
Financing is the key issue at COP29, with the relatively weak new climate financing pledges unveiled at COP16 in Colombia adding to an already tense global mood on climate action. With several days of talks now complete, serious questions remain about setting a new collective quantified goal. The previous financing goal of $100 billion per year set in 2009 was not realised until 2022 and is now set to expire next year.
Different parties and country groups have put forward a wide range of targets. The Independent Expert Group on Climate Finance, for example, released its third annual report on Thursday, arguing that that the global climate financing need could rise to $1.3 trillion annually by 2035. The increased funding goals are likely to be a particularly sticky point in discussions, with many Western nations resistant to pledging additional funds without major financing commitments from China.
Other key points of tension to be resolved include who will be responsible for contributing to the climate financing goal, the reporting measures that will be put in place and the expected unveiling of new, more ambitious national climate targets, so-called Nationally Determined Contributions.
The return of President Trump casts a shadow on climate talks
Scrutiny and speculation over what a second Trump administration will mean for American climate financing on the international stage and action on emissions has abounded, but some key points seem clear. First, Trump’s return to the White House means it is highly likely that the US will leave the Paris Agreement – and perhaps the overarching UN climate framework, too. Additionally, the more ambitious emissions reductions targets set under President Biden are likely to be downscaled, and funding for the green transition and climate action both inside the US and internationally are expected to decrease. That would not only mean a massive reduction in both commitment and spending by the world’s largest economy and its biggest polluter, but it sends a chilling message to the rest of the world, especially those countries lacking climate commitment. Trump’s mantra of “Drill, baby, drill” is all but a clarion call to fossil fuel producers around the world, undermining the very essence of what COP is trying to achieve via a reduction in hydrocarbon dependence and the meeting of ‘net zero’ targets.
As was the case under the first Trump administration, officials from left-leaning American states and major cities such as California and New York City may become more active on the global stage. Californian Governor Gavin Newsom has already sought waivers from the Biden administration to exempt the state’s emission and environmental regulations from federal oversight once Trump takes office.
Boycotts and arguments – but is there still room for real progress?
It’s not who is in Baku that is shaping the conversation this year, but who isn’t. Relatively few representatives from G7 countries are on the ground, casting a pall over hopes that the summit would see ambitious new global financing commitments and pledges realised. The number of attendees at COP has risen sharply in recent years, with more than 70,000 people participating in COP28 in some capacity – including thousands of lobbyists from the fossil fuel industry as well as larger country delegations. COP29 has reversed that trend however, with fewer world leaders attending overall and the heads of state for major players including the US, China, the EU, Russia, Brazil, Canada, India, China, South Africa and Australia among those not in Baku for various reasons. Although the smaller number of attendees has been widely noted, UN Climate Chief, Simon Stiell, remarked at a Chatham House event earlier this year that ‘size does not necessarily translate to the quality of outcomes’.
Some countries that were in attendance have also already decided to retreat. The Argentinian government this week recalled its 80 representatives from Baku, with Argentine President, Javier Milei, previously having called the climate crisis a ‘socialist lie’. French Ecological Transition Minister, Agnès Pannier-Runacher, also told the French Senate that she will not attend the summit after Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev harshly criticised the behaviour of the French government in causing ‘environmental degradation’ and suppressing protests in its ‘colonies’ including in New Caledonia. The fallout between Azerbaijan and France has also drawn in the European Union, with the EU’s climate chief posting a message in support of France on X. In addition to his tussle with France, President Aliyev also gave a fiery speech in which he criticised Western media for referring to Azerbaijan as a ‘petrostate’, defended the country’s right to use its natural oil and gas resources and celebrated the tens of thousands of attendees gathered in Baku over the objectives of civil society groups calling for a boycott due concerns of media repression.
Despite a turbulent beginning, hopes for the summit remain. For example, UK Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, unveiled an ambitious new commitment to cut emissions by 81% compared with 1990 levels by 2035 that has been broadly applauded by observers. The announcement makes the UK one of the first countries to publish an updated and tougher national climate action plan ahead of the February deadline, with other major emitters expected to follow.
What’s next?
Next week we’ll be back with a further update on how things are unfolding in Baku, where hopefully progress will have been made on key priorities including climate financing as talks continue. Looking beyond that, we’ll also be sharing a view from on-the-ground at this year’s second COP16 in Saudi Arabia focused on desertification.
Sign up for Temperature Check here to follow along with us over the next several weeks.
In the headlines
- Financial Times, French boycott of COP29 lays bare widening divides at UN climate summit, 14.11
- BBC, UN Climate talks ‘no longer fit for purpose’ say key experts,11
- New York Times, Who’s at the U.N. Climate Summit? Here are 29 Years of Guests, Visualized, 13.11
- The Guardian, Argentina withdraws negotiators from COP29 summit, 14.11
- Reuters, COP29 climate talks urged to find $1 trillion a year for poorer countries, 14.11
- BBC, Keir Starmer tells COP29 there will be new ‘ambitious’ climate target for UK, 11.11
